Edition 9

Nov 20, 2025

Your Business Snapshot:

🌍Stronger growth, a weaker dollar and policy reforms benefit emerging markets

⚖️ France sues Greybull Capital over failed steel rescue, threatening 760 jobs

📈 Twelve billion bond raises funds for Amazon’s cloud and logistics growth

💻 Microsoft and Nvidia’s $15bn bet on Anthropic, Smart Investment or AI Bubble?

Economics

Emerging markets take the lead

A recent trend has been the positive performance of emerging markets with emerging and developing markets expected to grow around 4% this year, while developed markets are only set to grow at 1.5%. There has also been a massive stock market surge with the biggest rally in emerging market stocks in more than 15 years.

This has been supported by a sliding dollar, caused by shifting interest rate expectations and a large fiscal deficit, which supports emerging markets through cheaper debt servicing, improved FDI and support for trade. In particular African stock, bonds and currencies have experienced a winning streak. South African, Nigerian, Kenyan and Moroccan stocks have returned at least 40% this year in dollar terms[3]. Many investors have diversified into these markets due to their focus on real assets, as opposed to the current over-weighting in digital assets. Furthermore, there has been a $5trn in the MSCI benchmark’s to $26trn, dominated by Asian chipmaker and technology due to the global AI frenzy.

Emerging markets are also in generally healthier debt positions and are geared towards precious and industrial metals which act as an inflation hedge in the current global macro environment. Additionally, Asian economies have largely avoided higher inflation levels that have haunted policy makers in developed economies. Fiscal policy has also played an important part, IMF data suggests most emerging markets have been tightening fiscal policy in recent years, such as India, creating a positive primary budget balance. Along with this monetary policy has been utilised effectively, with interest rates rising in 2021 and 2022 at a much faster rate than and before those decisions made by the FED, BoE and ECB. This has allowed African central banks to be much more generous with interest rate cuts in recent months and has driven dramatic changes in fixed income markets.

Greater access to foreign capital could also in turn provide emerging markets with funds for much needed investments into critical infrastructure that would catalyse the effects of the positive results. Emerging and developing markets have previously been forced into tough situations due to unrealistic debt terms and sometimes inefficient institutions highlighted in the books ‘Dead Aid’ and ‘Why Nations Fail’. The positive market performance could therefore be a turning point in the path of development.

In summary, emerging markets are benefiting from stronger fundamentals, targeted policy action and renewed investor interest. If current trends continue, rising foreign investment and improved market access could help convert this near term momentum into longer lasting economic progress.

Business

France Sues Greybull Capital After Novasco Rescue Deal Collapses

The French government is suing the British investment firm Greybull Capital after the collapse of Novasco, a major French steel producer that employed about 760 workers. This case has quickly become one of the most discussed industrial failures in France this year. It has sparked worries about investor responsibility, public funding, and the future of regional manufacturing. Novasco, previously known as Ascometal, specialises in high-grade steel used in industries such as automotive and energy. The company has faced financial difficulties for several years[1].

In July 2024, Greybull Capital, a private investment firm known for taking over struggling businesses, purchased it. As part of the deal, Greybull promised to invest €90 million to help turn Novasco around. This commitment was crucial to the agreement, especially since the French government agreed to back the rescue alongside the new owner. However, government officials say Greybull delivered only €1.5 million of the promised investment. As told in the Financial Times the French finance minister Roland Lescure told television network TF1: “They had committed to investing €90mn, a year later, they’ve only invested €1.5mn. The sums don’t add up.” This amount was far below what was needed to keep the company operating normally. As funds dwindled, Novasco entered “redressement judiciaire,” meaning a court-supervised restructuring process intended to help failing companies avoid liquidation[2].

Roland Lescure announced that the state will seek civil and possibly criminal actions against Greybull. The government claims the firm did not keep its promises and put public money and hundreds of industrial jobs at risk. Officials also state that the government will support workers, unions, and local authorities who fear the economic impact if parts of Novasco’s operations close. Many employees accuse Greybull of abandoning the steelmaker shortly after the purchase.

The potential closure of Novasco sites threatens around 760 jobs, many in areas already facing industrial decline. For local communities, this case is not just about corporate governance; it is about the survival of well-paying manufacturing jobs. While some potential buyers have shown interest in specific locations, it remains uncertain whether the company can be fully saved or if restructuring will require partial closures.

As indicated in Le Figaro, a commercial court in Strasbourg will decide Novasco’s future, including whether the company can be sold, restructured, or partially liquidated. Depending on the court's findings, Greybull may face financial penalties. In the meantime, the government is looking into alternative rescue options to protect as many jobs as possible[3].

Markets

Amazon seeks cheap debt

Amazon announced a $12 billion bond offering split into three maturities – three years, five years and ten years. Yields sit near 3.8 percent on the shortest note and about 4.5 percent on the longest, according to Bloomberg’s pricing data. Investor demand exceeded the amount allocated, showing strong confidence in Amazon’s cash generation from its cloud and e‑commerce operations[2]. The company says the proceeds will go toward general corporate purposes. In practice that means funding new data‑centre capacity, upgrading the logistics network and refinancing existing debt at lower rates. The Financial Times points out that these capital-intensive projects, especially in Amazon Web Services, need a steady stream of funding and that using debt avoids diluting shareholders[1].

Market reaction was largely positive. Reuters reported that Amazon’s shares rose about 1.2 percent on the day of the announcement. The bond market also tightened, with comparable tech issuers seeing tighter spreads after Amazon’s successful placement, indicating that investors still view large tech firms as reliable borrowers[3].  The issuance fits a broader trend of big tech firms turning to debt markets for funding. Bloomberg notes that several major players have launched multi‑billion-dollar bond programs over the past year to lock in low rates before any potential rate hikes. The average yield on large‑cap tech bonds has slipped below 4 percent, making borrowing conditions attractive. Amazon’s timing appears deliberate, taking advantage of a still favourable rate backdrop while the Federal Reserve signals a pause on further hikes[2]. 

Strategically the bond sale gives Amazon flexibility. Staggered maturities spread repayment obligations and reduce cash flow pressure in any single year. It also lets the company align financing with the rollout of new infrastructure projects that have long development horizons. By diversifying its funding sources Amazon can manage risk better and maintain a strong credit rating, which in turn keeps borrowing costs low[1]. 

In summary the $12 billion bond offering shows Amazon’s confidence in its growth outlook and its ability to attract capital on favorable terms. Strong investor appetite highlights market trust in Amazon’s business model and its capacity to deliver cash from both retail and cloud operations. The proceeds will likely fuel further expansion of its logistics and data‑centre footprint, positioning the firm for continued dominance in e‑commerce and cloud services[1][2][3]. 

Tech

How much longer will the AI optimism last?

Microsoft and Nvidia’s plan to invest up to $15bn in Anthropic, a key rival to OpenAI, is another centrepiece behind the speculation surrounding the so-called AI bubble[`]. As part of the deal, Anthropic is reported to commit tens of billions of dollars in future spending on Microsoft’s Azure cloud, further deepening its ties with the AI’s newest advancements[5].

The speed of Anthropic’s rise is central to the AI bubble debate. Recent funding rounds have pushed its valuation into the hundreds of billions of dollars, with some estimates suggesting it could approach $350bn. This is making public markets nervous. The Financial Times has reported dips in US tech stocks as traders fret about ‘frothy’ AI valuations, with hundreds of billions wiped off AI market caps in just a few days[2]. Other market reports describe Wall Street slumping on renewed AI bubble fears, even as private investors continue to put money into late stage AI deals. The gap between private and public decision making is often a key indicator for the nearing of the end of an economic boom.

The parallels with past crises should not be overlooked and raises huge concerns to the suspected AI bubble. Like the dot-com era, we have a genuinely transformative technology generating huge expectations. Whilst there is currently no public evidence that Anthropic or the major AI platforms are engaged in fraud, there are growing concerns bubbling beneath the surface with unclear metrics and the lack of transparency from big tech[4].

Regulators are increasingly focused on the competitive implications. Authorities in the US, UK and EU have signalled concern that a handful of dominant platforms could lock up critical AI inputs through strategic investments and exclusive partnerships[3]. The US Federal Trade Commission has warned that some partnerships between big tech and AI firms may, in practice, function like mergers, handing market power in the cloud and computer world. European regulators are also probing cloud and AI arrangements, including Microsoft’s earlier deals, for potential anti-competitive and anti-monopoly effects.

Bonus Section

Figure of the week: -10.21%

In the last year crude oil prices have fallen by 10.21%[1], partly due to demand and supply imbalances. Recent OPEC forecasts from major energy agencies now suggest that supply growth may outpace demand into next year, which has placed further downward pressure on prices[2].

This decline matters on several fronts. Lower oil prices ease cost-pressures for consumers and businesses alike, potentially feeding through to lower inflation and reducing the burden on energy-intensive sectors. Inflationary pressures have still been a concern in developed countries such as the US and UK, while other countries like China have been experiencing deflationary effects, so this will have mixed effects. On the flip side, the slide signals caution about growth and demand: when firms and nations expect weaker oil demand, that reflects broader economic softness. Moreover, for oil-exporting countries and energy companies, sustained lower prices pose earnings and fiscal risks, meaning the ripple effects could be far reaching in markets.

Editors: Liam Sanderson, Dinel Gamage

Writers: Liam Sanderson, Filip Wang, Cleo Vuillot, Harshil Nichani

References:

Economics:

[1] IMF - https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025

[2] Financial Times - https://www.ft.com/content/fbf77fd7-5cfc-4ab9-9793-5cd514bd75ca

[3] Financial Times - https://www.ft.com/content/c62752d9-5961-4afa-b97e-9577b5643dac

Business:

[1] Le Monde - https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2025/08/11/novasco-ex-ascometal-en-redressement-judiciaire-dans-l-attente-d-une-incertaine-reprise_6628298_3234.html

[2] Financial Times - https://www.ft.com/content/c58605a2-f3a8-415a-bd98-c0e4be637c2a

[3] Le Figaro - https://www.lefigaro.fr/societes/reprise-ratee-promesses-non-tenues-l-etat-attaque-le-fonds-britannique-greybull-sur-la-reprise-de-l-acieriste-francais-novasco-20251117

Markets:

[1] Financial Times - https://www.ft.com/content/amazon‑bond‑sale‑2025